The U.S. prediction exchange Kalshi has partnered with the trendy trading platform StockX, directly grafting the frenzy of the financial world and casinos onto the heads of trendy toy players:
Future trends of Supreme hoodies? You can bet on it.
Will the price of limited Nike Dunks jump? You can bet on the size of the market.
Can TCG Pokémon and star cards PSA10 break through the range? Bet without hesitation.
Can the price of LABUBU exceed 300 dollars? This is a real hot market.
As Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said: "This is a natural extension of the stock market mechanism."
But those in the industry understand that this actually means: As long as someone speculates, I can turn it into a gambling market.
Anything that can fluctuate, be hyped, and make people collectively go crazy can be turned into a gambling game.
⬆️ Why is LABUBU suitable as a "prediction market target"?
A toy priced at 99 yuan can be hyped up to 2000, 3000, or even 5000, naturally carrying the "DNA of blind box gambling winnings."
Things that truly allow players to repeatedly invest, continuously bet, and be collectively pursued by the market frenzy never need business logic.
They just need emotions, price fluctuations, scarcity stories, and information asymmetry. LABUBU and related blind boxes have all these, even wilder and more 'gamble' than most stocks.
⬆️ LABUBU blind box prediction market: Really feasible?
Not only is it feasible, but from a mathematical model perspective, blind box prediction market = a direct variant of slot machines.
Because their underlying logic is the same: Uncertainty × Emotional stimulation × Mathematically controllable × Constant yield rate
What you see is "random." In fact, what can be controlled by the platform is "a rigorous mathematical model."
Just like slot machines: Each round is random, but the long-term return rate (RTP) is always fixed.
You think you're "drawing a hidden item"? The platform calculates: draw probability, repurchase cost, user retention rate, event trigger rate, system total yield rate (similar to RTP).
All this is designed just like a casino slot machine.
So how to turn LABUBU into a "tradable slot machine"? Mainly three models, each of which is fully implementable.
🟥 First is the blind box contract (trendy toy version of Prop Bet)
This is the first mode that Kalshi and StockX might complete, about the "event contract" on how prices will move.
For example:
Some common model → "Won't rise" contract
Some co-branded hidden model → "Will rise" contract
🟥 Second is building a "trendy toy perpetual contract exchange," blind box futures
This is the ultimate form that Kalshi and StockX might complete. Turning the secondary market transaction price of LABUBU into an index.
Users can go long, short, leverage, the platform earns funding rate, and also earns transaction fees.
Turning LABUBU from a toy into a financial asset, making trendy toy securitization like Bitcoin into a "perpetual market."
🟥 Third is the simplest ground implementation of blind box lottery
The platform provides a blind box selection game (physical items can be tokenized):
Draw hidden → Platform will repurchase at a fixed price
Draw common → Players can hold, resell to other players
Of course, other reskinned Labubu lottery games are not elaborated further. The key point is Kalshi's logic is to build a Web3 version of trendy toy futures + gambling props.
💡 Why is there an opportunity for prediction markets + trendy blind boxes?
Going back to the core model of slot machines, you will find that the probability of blind boxes is also controllable, the interval of lottery feedback is controllable, and the profit range can also be fixed.
Players drawing blind boxes seem to be gambling on luck, but in reality, the platform is just combining lottery, sports betting, slot machines with blind boxes, and prediction markets.
The systems are different, but the logic is the same. All "addictive products" are backed by models developed by mathematicians, and these issues have been studied in the slot machine industry for decades.
The prediction market industry is just beginning, and the globally booming blind box economy is just a carrier.
Kalshi's ambition is to turn all things that can ignite human emotions into a bettable gamble. This time targeting LABUBU, Kalshi sees it as naturally equipped with a gambling emotion trigger: "All things that can cause controversy, create emotional fluctuations, all become a bettable transaction."
Anything that can bring emotional fluctuations can be gamified. The prediction market is no longer just gambling, it's even "completely slot machine-izing the real world."
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