Despite a robust performance in Macau's total gambling revenue (GGR) in January, influenced by the distribution of the Chinese New Year holiday, several investment banks predict a slowdown in February GGR growth, which is expected to be uneven. Citibank, Credit Agricole, and Deutsche Bank have given a year-over-year growth forecast range between 4% and 12.8%, with the core difference stemming from different assessments of seasonal fluctuations during the Chinese New Year. Macau's GGR in January surged 24% year-over-year, only 9% below the pre-pandemic level, laying a foundation for recovery throughout the year. Relevant Macau gambling industry data and trend analysis can be found on the PASA official website.
Diverging forecasts from three major banks: From cautious to optimistic
The investment banks have provided differentiated forecasts based on their assessments of market demand and seasonal factors, with clear core data:
Citigroup (most cautious): Expects February GGR to be approximately 20.5 billion Macau patacas (about 2.53 billion US dollars), with a mere 4% year-over-year increase; it believes that the period from February 3 to 18 (around Chinese New Year) will be the quietest of the year, with gaming activities significantly diverted by the Spring Festival travel rush.
Credit Agricole (neutral): Predicts a 7% year-over-year increase, with GGR reaching 21.2 billion Macau patacas (about 2.62 billion US dollars); emphasizes that a strong finish in January provides a stable base, with resilience in mass market demand and visitor trends as main supports.
Deutsche Bank (most optimistic): Estimates GGR at about 27.9 billion US dollars, a significant 12.8% increase year-over-year, exceeding general market expectations; believes that January's performance exceeded historical seasonal levels, injecting momentum into the holiday period, despite seasonal headwinds but still supported by year-over-year basis.
Seasonal fluctuations key: Uneven demand around Chinese New Year
The timing of the Chinese New Year holiday is a core variable affecting February GGR, with significant uneven demand characteristics:
Pre-holiday slump: During the Spring Festival travel period, tourists are more inclined to return home for family reunions rather than visit Macau for gambling, leading to a slowdown in gaming activities from early February to the beginning of the Chinese New Year;
Post-holiday rebound: Citibank predicts that after the Chinese New Year low, the busiest period will concentrate in the five days following the slump, driving a recovery in revenue in the latter part of the month;
Data smoothing: Citibank specifically points out that its combined forecast for January-February has taken into account the difference in timing of the Chinese New Year compared to last year, which can reduce misjudgments caused by monthly fluctuations.
Annual outlook: Steady recovery without rapid acceleration
Investment banks are generally optimistic about the full-year recovery trend of the Macau gambling industry, but all agree that it will be a "steady normalization" rather than a rapid surge:
Credit Agricole: Maintains a constructive mid-term view, predicting a 5% year-over-year growth in GGR by 2026; supporting factors include a mild appreciation of the yuan against the dollar and improvements in China's mainland macroeconomic indicators, which will continue to boost gaming demand.
Deutsche Bank: Expects GGR in the first quarter of 2026 to be about 8.4 billion US dollars, reaching 332 billion US dollars for the full year; emphasizes that recovery is still on track, but will maintain a steady pace, without rapid acceleration.
Industry consensus: Despite short-term fluctuations due to the holiday, January's strong performance has validated market demand resilience, with a clear recovery trend for the full year, inevitable fluctuations but overall improvement.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
