As the NCAA men's and women's basketball finals kick off on March 17, the event with the highest betting volume on the American sports calendar officially begins. H2 Gambling Capital estimates that this year's March Madness sports betting will reach $4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, continuing the trend of steady growth. In plain terms, it means that gamblers across the US are entering a three-week "madness" mode again.
Total betting forecast: $4 billion sets a record, boosted by the new Missouri market
H2 predicts that the event in 2026 will grow further from last year's record levels, mainly due to the continuous increase in betting amounts across US states, and the opening of Missouri's gambling market in December last year. Although the overall betting amount is still growing, the growth rate is slowing down, with only a 5% increase in December year-on-year, and only 2% excluding new markets. The overall year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter was 14%. H2 forecasts that the regulated sports betting amount for the entire year of 2026 will increase by about 17%, reaching about $22.2 billion.
Forecast market analysis: Legal states only account for 3.5%, limited impact
For the forecast market, H2 estimates that in states with legal sports betting, the forecast market may generate about $135 million to $150 million in "equivalent betting amounts". Compared to the legal market's $4 billion, this only accounts for about 3.5% of the total, and less than 2% of the market GGR. Therefore, it is unreasonable to blame the presence of the forecast market if traditional sports betting shows weakness.
Hold percentage highlights: Expected to be 7% higher than last year, underdogs may boost revenue
March Madness typically brings a lower hold percentage for bookmakers than professional events, partly because the lower profile of players leads to a decrease in the ratio of parlays in the same game. H2 expects this season's tournament hold percentage to reach 7%, higher than last year's estimate of 6.1%, which was much lower than previous seasons, possibly affected by the first simultaneous entry of four number one seeds into the semifinals. Based on this hold percentage, betting revenue is expected to be $279 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Operators hope the hold percentage can continue the improvement trend of the NFL season. Want to know the latest developments in US sports betting? PASA official website keeps track.
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