The Philippines is entering an unprecedented political storm. With only a few months left until the 2025 midterm elections, what should be a lively time for party mobilization and candidates vying for public favor is overshadowed by a series of crises and unrest.
Vice President Sara Duterte is about to undergo a Senate impeachment trial, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s approval ratings continue to decline, even facing public questioning by his own sister, senior senator Imee Marcos. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is closing in on its investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's "war on drugs," potentially issuing an arrest warrant for him.
All these elements paint a bleak picture, with the Philippine democratic system facing an unprecedented test.
The Sara Impeachment Case: Not Just a Legal Procedure, but a Power Struggle
Vice President Sara Duterte is at a turning point in her political career. Starting in June, she will face a formal impeachment trial in the Senate over allegations of unconstitutional acts, abuse of power, and corruption. This impeachment, initiated by the House of Representatives, not only affects Sara's personal fate but could also shake the foundation of the entire Duterte political dynasty.
As the daughter of the former president and the current Vice President and Minister of Education, Sara was originally seen as a successor in the conservative camp. Although she currently maintains a restrained speech, her allies behind the scenes have viewed this impeachment as a "politically motivated witch hunt."
Observers believe that this is not only a contest between parties but also a public manifestation of the rifts within the Marcos-Duterte camp.
The Decline of Little Marcos' Authority: From a Landslide Election to Family Discord
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who was elected president in 2022 with an overwhelming majority, is now facing the most challenging time of his administration. Polls show his approval ratings are continuously falling, with the biggest blow coming from his own family.
Senator Imee Marcos recently publicly questioned her brother: "Does the president truly hold the reins of national power?" She criticized the president for being surrounded by the wrong advisory group and expressed dissatisfaction with the direction of policies.
Symbolically significant, Imee has recently joined the senatorial candidate camp of PDP-Laban, supported by Duterte. This is widely seen as a clear "shift," also signaling to the outside world that there is a high-level split within the Marcos administration.
Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that the Duterte camp is brewing an impeachment against President Marcos, although Sara has denied this, claiming that the House of Representatives is still controlled by the president's allies, but the undercurrents in politics are enough to raise alarms.
Old Duterte and the ICC: An Unexploded Political Bomb
The International Criminal Court is conducting an in-depth investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's "war on drugs." According to foreign media reports, the ICC is very likely to issue a formal arrest warrant in the coming months.
This case not only involves significant human rights issues but may also intensify domestic political opposition, becoming a catalyst for confrontations between opposition and support rallies.
Analysts point out that if the ICC actually issues a warrant, not only will Sara's electoral prospects be severely damaged, but the entire Duterte family's political landscape may be forced to contract, possibly triggering a more intense backlash from the conservative camp.
The Real Concerns of the People: Living Pressures and Systemic Failures
Compared to the high-level political games, ordinary Filipinos are concerned with another set of real issues: high prices, job shortages, low wages. According to the latest survey by Pulse Asia, nearly seventy percent of respondents believe that "inflation" is the most pressing livelihood issue at the moment.
A market vendor interviewed by the media bluntly stated: "We don't care who becomes president, but whether we can still afford to eat tomorrow."
In this atmosphere of social anxiety, issues of electoral injustice also frequently emerge—bribery, violence, voter intimidation, and the spread of false information are rampant.
Recently, police intercepted 11 individuals at the airport carrying a huge sum of 442 million pesos in cash, suspected of involving foreign groups in money laundering for election interference. Similarly, in the southern region, there are frequent reports of motorcyclists transporting cash and sample ballots with candidate names, raising widespread doubts about the fairness of elections.
From the remote island of Mindoro to the frequently conflicted Muslim Autonomous Region of Mindanao (BARMM), reports of "vote-buying for life" and "assassination to clear votes" frequently appear in the news. Human rights organizations bluntly state: "This is not democracy; this is voting in fear."
2025: A Stress Test of the System, or a Critical Point for Democracy?
The Philippines has always prided itself as the "beacon of democracy in Asia" with its multi-party elections and media freedom, but the 2025 midterm elections seem more like a major test of the country's political and systemic resilience.
With the vice president embroiled in impeachment, the president's popularity plummeting, the former president potentially facing international arrest, and grassroots voters being forced to "make choices" in fear and anger—does such an election still retain its original democratic meaning?
Perhaps, the Philippines will soon find an answer.
But undoubtedly, this storm is far from over, and it has only just begun.
