The online prediction market Polymarket in the United States has once again brought the Brazilian political situation into focus, attracting global users to bet on the country's political uncertainty. As the political fate of Alexandre de Moraes, a justice at Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF), and former President Jair Bolsonaro becomes the center of attention, traders are betting not only on political events but also on the stability of Brazil's democratic system.
The Polymarket, launched in July 2025, features a controversial contract on whether Moraes will be impeached within the year. In early July, due to former U.S. President Trump's imposition of high tariffs on Brazilian products, the U.S.-Brazil relationship became tense, and at one point, the market believed there was a 28% chance that Moraes would be removed by the Senate.
The bets placed by traders show that they believe external pressures might force the Brazilian government to take action. However, by mid-August, the probability of Moraes being impeached had dropped to just 9%, with analysts believing that the institutional resistance of the Brazilian Senate significantly reduces the likelihood of impeachment.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has opened several markets related to Bolsonaro's legal issues. The biggest focus is whether the former president will be convicted of plotting a coup. As of August 15, the market shows an 83% probability of him being found guilty, while the probability of him leaving Brazil in 2025 is only 6%, indicating a widespread belief that Bolsonaro will stay in the country to face legal proceedings.
Moreover, the political tension also extends to the trade sector. Another popular contract on Polymarket is whether the Trump administration will sign a new trade agreement with Brazil in 2025, with only a 7% probability, indicating that traders see limited prospects for U.S.-Brazil trade relations.
Overall, Polymarket is not just a betting platform but also reflects the global market's assessment of Brazilian political risks. Trading data indicate that despite the high probability of Bolsonaro being convicted and the unlikely impeachment of Moraes, the Brazilian political situation remains full of uncertainties, with traders and policy observers closely monitoring developments.
