Thailand's political scene has recently undergone a major shift. On September 6, the Thai Parliament completed the prime ministerial vote, with Anutin Charnvirakul securing over 247 votes to be elected as the 32nd Prime Minister. He is perhaps better known by his Chinese name "Chen Xiyao" — originating from Guangzhou, Guangdong, and born into a family of builders, he is the head of STECON, a major Thai infrastructure company. Iconic projects such as the Suvarnabhumi Airport and the new Parliament House are closely associated with his family business.
Anutin is not a new face. He was previously banned from politics for five years due to political strife and served as the Minister of Public Health during the pandemic, where he controlled anti-pandemic policies and was dubbed the "Cannabis Minister" for pushing the legalization of medical marijuana. Over the past decade, he has been a key minority in Thai politics, navigating between different political forces, influencing the political landscape, and often referred to as the "kingmaker." Now, he has finally ascended to the highest seat of power.
However, his tenure is extremely short. According to the constitution and party agreements, his transitional government will present its policy direction in early October and dissolve the parliament in February 2026, with new elections to be held within 60 days at the latest. In other words, his term as prime minister is only four months, more akin to a "caretaker prime minister." There are doubts about his ability to push for constitutional amendments, stabilize the economy, and soothe social conflicts within such a short time.
Meanwhile, another heavyweight figure — former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra — has quietly fled to Dubai, leaving behind a complex situation. This marks the fourth core member of his family to be forced out. Thaksin's statement, "I will definitely come back," adds to the undercurrents in Thai politics. The unexpected alliance between the People's Party and the Proud Party has further complicated the political scene, with influences from both the royal family and behind-the-scenes power struggles.
This uncertainty is particularly alarming for Chinese investors. Investments in the Sino-Thai railway, large infrastructure and real estate projects, and regional supply chains may be impacted by power transitions and policy fluctuations. Risks of contract delays, approval lags, and frozen funds could occur at any time. Thailand has always been a crucial strategic location for Chinese enterprises in Southeast Asia, but now, the political storm has turned it into a chessboard full of uncertainties.
Deeper concerns lie in the fact that the seemingly stable short-term transition may mask long-term systemic risks. Once a new round of elections triggers a reorganization of the political scene, Chinese capital is highly likely to become a sacrificial target. Policy directions could fluctuate unpredictably with power shifts, decreasing investment security.
Anutin's election represents both a temporary stabilizer for Thai politics and a new risk signal. For Chinese enterprises, every future investment in Thailand will be a high-risk gamble, and only by deploying risk management strategies in advance can they avoid becoming the next victim caught in the crossfire. In the turbulent market of Southeast Asia, those who can discern the undercurrents will truly safeguard their capital security.
