Vietnam is releasing clearer policy signals, indicating that it is moving towards a limited opening of regulated gambling. Since the launch of the local player pilot in November last year, the initial impact has mainly been reflected in visitor numbers and market sentiment, rather than a rapid transformation at the revenue level. Tim Nguyen, director of Fortuna Investments, told the media that the significance of the pilot project lies more in policy guidance than in short-term financial returns. To be honest, from the current situation, the Vietnamese government is more concerned about "whether it can be managed" rather than "how much money can be collected".
Nguyen further explained that so far, the biggest impact of the pilot has not been direct gambling revenue, but has released a signal - Vietnam is willing to test a controlled local participation model under strict regulation. This cautious attitude is also reflected in regulatory dynamics outside the casino. According to a draft intended to replace Decree No. 06 of 2017, the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance proposes that individuals participating in football, horse racing, and greyhound betting must fully disclose identity information, including name, nationality, occupation, contact information, and address, to comply with the requirements of the 2022 Anti-Money Laundering Law.
At the same time, the draft raises the daily betting limit for international football events from the previous 1 million Vietnamese dong (about 38 US dollars) to 10 million Vietnamese dong (about 380 US dollars). However, the authorities rejected further suggestions to increase the limit, reflecting a balance strategy - while raising the threshold, maintaining strict control over risks. The Ministry of Finance stated that the adjusted limit considers both revenue growth factors and aims to prevent excessive gambling from affecting social order, clearly conveying a policy tone of "control prior to expansion".
The local pilot is initially effective, but demand release still takes time
From an operational perspective, the initial dividends of the local player pilot are mainly concentrated in the high-end midfield and lower markets. Nguyen pointed out that properties such as The Grand Ho Tram and Corona Resort & Casino have seen increased activity in the slot machine and mass gambling table areas, benefiting from a broader local customer base. He stated that local customers usually expand the visitor base and increase revisit frequency, which also drives non-gambling consumption at resorts.
However, despite these initial improvements, operators generally reflect that domestic demand has not really started. Scott Choi, external market manager of Lion Club, frankly stated that although The Grand Ho Tram and Corona Resort have recently been approved to open to local players, no significant or strong domestic demand has been seen. This is not difficult to understand, as several structural issues are still limiting market growth.
The most direct obstacle is the income verification requirement, which limits the possibility of random participation and narrows the eligible customer base. In addition, casino advertising restrictions make public awareness low, weakening market expansion effects. Past experience has also shown that simply opening access is not enough to automatically generate demand. Choi mentioned that in the earlier pilot at Corona Resort on Phu Quoc Island, local participation did not meet expectations due to high accommodation costs, limited room supply, and inconvenient transportation at the time. Although the infrastructure has improved, it is still uncertain whether demand will accelerate significantly in the short term.
Competition and restrictions coexist, the market still needs patience
Competition from alternative channels makes the market outlook more complex. Local players can participate in gambling through online platforms and nearby Cambodian casinos, which have fewer restrictions and sometimes offer better value for money. Choi emphasized that to effectively compete, local operators must provide a sufficiently attractive value proposition to offset the impact of these alternative choices.
The gap between policy direction and market response is also reflected in the revenue structure. Although local participation supports the midfield market, high-end VIP players, who are traditional core revenue sources, still prefer overseas destinations because they offer more private, exclusive experiences and higher betting limits. As the market gradually evolves, operators need to find a balance between different customer groups.
Currently, industry insiders generally expect a gradual development of the gambling industry in Vietnam, rather than rapid expansion. The government seems to be closely monitoring the results of the pilot before considering further policy adjustments. Nguyen pointed out that in Vietnam, gambling is more seen as a component of integrated tourism development rather than an independent industry. Projects that can strengthen tourism infrastructure and enhance the attractiveness of destinations are more likely to receive policy support.
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