A report commissioned by the Swedish Online Gambling Trade Association and authored by economist Ola Nevander shows a significant decline in Sweden's problem gambling rates since the late 2000s. This change occurred against an interesting backdrop: the online gambling market experienced rapid growth during this period, with substantial increases in marketing investments and technological accessibility. The report, based on official statistics, government documents, and literature, covers a quarter-century span. It suggests that this downward trend is not due to market contraction but was achieved amidst industry expansion.
This figure, unthinkable a decade ago, uses the Problem Gambling Severity Index as a measurement tool, finding that the problem gambling rate among Swedish adults has decreased from 2.2% in 2008-09 to 1.3% in 2021. This means a reduction of about 57,000 people, a decrease of 35%. The broader at-risk gambling group also saw a reduction of about 200,000 people during the monitoring period.
However, it is important to note that the proportion of severe problem gambling has been relatively stable over the past twenty years, fluctuating between 0.3% and 0.6%. Among those adults who had online gambling experiences in the past year, the problem gambling rate significantly dropped from 12% in 2008-09 to about 4% between 2018-2021.
Channelization and Self-exclusion: Two Key Variables
Despite the decline in problem gambling rates, Swedes' enthusiasm for gambling seems unabated. A recent survey shows that nearly one-sixth (18%) of Swedes played online casino games in 2025, and over one-fifth (24%) placed online sports bets. Under such circumstances, why has the problem gambling rate decreased? The report provides two key explanations.
One is channelization rate, the proportion of players turning to licensed operators. The report shows that Sweden's overall channelization rate is about 85%, slightly lower for online casinos. In comparison, Norway and Denmark have higher channelization rates of 91.5% and 91%, respectively, while Finland was only at 48% before reform. A higher channelization rate means more players are within the regulatory framework, allowing consumer protection measures such as duty of care, self-exclusion tools, and data monitoring to be more effective.
The second is the prevalence of the self-exclusion system. Sweden's national self-exclusion system, Spelpaus, had about 136,000 registered users by March 2026, accounting for 1.6% of the adult population. However, the survey also shows that about half of the self-excluders continue to gamble, mainly through unlicensed operators. This indicates that while the tools are in place, there is still room for improvement in coverage and effectiveness.
Treatment Methods and Areas for Improvement
The report also reviews prevention and treatment measures. Technologically, using machine learning algorithms to analyze transaction data shows potential in predicting problem gambling, although long-term effectiveness assessments are ongoing. Clinically, cognitive-behavioral therapy has been proven to significantly reduce gambling harm. Meta-analyses show that compared to control groups, cognitive-behavioral therapy effectively reduces gambling frequency, money spent, and addiction symptoms.
Since 2019, Sweden has re-regulated the online gambling market, establishing a licensing framework and operator obligations. Discussions around the regulatory model have continued in recent years. The soon-to-retire CEO of Sweden's ATG suggests considering a differentiated tax model, treating horse race betting differently. Tax and regulatory policy expert David Sundén points out that while Sweden's regulatory framework generally functions well, there is still room for improvement. He believes Sweden should learn from other countries' lessons, as "no country's model is clearly superior."
For more global gambling regulation and market dynamics, keep an eye on PASA's official website.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
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